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Potential predictability : ウィキペディア英語版
Potential predictability

The term potential predictability is used in the context of weather forecasting to describe the extent that the future weather can be predicted ''in principle'', i.e., it describes the proportion of variance in the weather that arises from systematic factors rather than random noise.
==Mathematical formalization==

Denote by \sigma the standard deviation in weather outcomes, so that \sigma^2 is the variance in weather outcomes. Of this, denote by \sigma_\nu^2 the ''internally generated'' variance component and by \sigma_\varepsilon^2 the ''unpredictable noise'' component. We have:〔
\sigma^2 = \sigma_\nu^2 + \sigma_\varepsilon^2
The potential predictability variance fraction (ppvf) is defined as:
p = \frac = \frac
The signal to noise ratio is defined as:
\gamma = \frac
p and \gamma can be computed from each other:
p = \frac\qquad ,\qquad \gamma = \frac
We have 0 < p < 1. Small values of p indicate that the signal is small, and that the weather is inherently unpredictable. Values of p close to 1 suggest that the weather is ''potentially'' predictable, even if current weather prediction methods do not predict it successfully.

抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア(Wikipedia)
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